PERU—The Week Ahead.

Slow GDP Growth in November
Economic activity likely expanded 7% y/y in November (8.6% y/y in Nov 07 and 9.3% y/y 3MMA). Although domestic demand probably continued increasing at a strong pace, it should signal a deceleration (13.1% y/y vs. 13.4% y/y 3MMA). Except for mining (12.4% y/y vs. 7.1% y/y 3MMA), the other GDP components with the heavy weights in the index should reflect a slowing trend. On the external front, total trade (exports plus imports) declined rapidly (-0.5% y/y vs. 22.3% y/y 3MMA), indicating continuing decelerations in external (exports -12.1% y/y vs. 7.2% y/y 3MMA) and domestic demand (imports 15% y/y vs. 43% y/y 3MMA). Finally, a calendar effect due to the APEC Summit should have exacerbated the ongoing deceleration. During the first 11M08, economic activity likely expanded 9.7% y/y (8.7% y/y in 11M07). The Bloomberg consensus anticipates GDP growth to be 6.5% y/y.